Base rate neglect
Base Rate Neglect
The tendency to ignore general odds or statistics and focus too much on a vivid detail or example.
Details
Base rate neglect happens when we pay more attention to a striking story, detail, or individual case than to the actual overall odds. Even when statistics suggest something is unlikely, a vivid example can make it feel much more probable.
This is one reason people may panic after reading about a rare illness online or assume a dramatic event is common just because they heard a memorable story about it.
Our minds are often moved more by what feels vivid than by what is statistically typical. Slowing down and asking about the bigger picture can help bring more balance.
💡 Real-Life Example
After reading one personal story about a rare disease, someone starts believing their ordinary symptoms must mean the same thing.
This content is for educational purposes and does not replace professional medical diagnosis.